Thursday, February 08, 2007

Long tail

Chris Anderson, editor of Wired magazine, based this book on an article he wrote in october 2004. It is about how certain markets are particularly conducive to exploiting niche segments in them and how some businesses have thrived on it. The original article explains the concept very well and the book does an even better job. For further analysis by an engaged community about the book, click here.
Reading the book opens your eyes to how powerful technology is and how it has transformed some economies from one of scarcity to one of abundance. It is written in a concise manner like most popular business books. The author goes overboard in trying to apply long tail to everything across the board. A very good analysis of the book and limitations of its application can be found here.

The book also mentions in passing that long tail might explain why mainstream indian movies(that is, mainstream with respect to audience within india), for all their fanatic following overseas, do not do well in those markets. Indian movie industry(on an aggregate basis in all languages) ,in its output,easily outstrips any other movie industry from any other corner of the world. Movies, in general, are in a format which do not impose prohibitive costs of entry into overseas markets. They include distribution costs and advertising. The indian diaspora are too scattered across the US for a distributor to make good profit on their investment and efficiently target them through advertising. Renting a theater space demands a higher audience than is available among indian diaspora in a specific location. The diaspora are exposed to hollywood entertainment and are sensitive to ticket prices. Some portions of these movies are made overseas. The paunchy hero in these movies is also pricey enough to make the producer drive a hard bargain with their distributor overseas. The appeal for an indian producer to distribute their movie to overseas indian audiences is partly driven by their desire to mitigate these rising costs.

When indian movies compete against movies on a general release in US, they do not do well. The producer of the indian movie gets his/her money's worth from a small overseas audience mainly because of exchange rate of dollar versus rupee. So, you have a DDLJ or KKKG that rake in money within the niche market and a Bride and prejudice that bleeds(In an act of mercy, it also sunk its light weight, acting challenged heroine as a capable actress). (Full disclosure : I have seen only DDLJ and have studiously kept away from the other two. Seeing Aishwarya act is a nightmare I prefer to live without).

The movies mentioned(and most of the mainstream indian movies that are released abroad, for that matter) portray the exclusivity of indian culture and market it to homesick overseas desis who get their validation fix from them. That non-indian audiences in some countries consider the indian culture portrayed in these movies as a reason to become fans of them, to me, is coincidental. The plight of tamil or telugu or bengali or malayalam movies compared to hindi movies in overseas markets can be explained in a similar manner.

A service like Netflix is useful for indian diaspora to peruse old movies.Streaming video or video on demand might liberate the indian producer from the tyranny of theater space and distribution costs. No longer do the indian diaspora need wait for grainy VHS tapes of their favourite movies to land in their 'friendly neighbourhood' indian grocery store.

The trick might be in identifying, targeting and aggregating the niche markets within each of these languages that are desperate for good movies. Indian diaspora watch movies from other countries in enough numbers to expect good movies from indian producers too. Given the vague feeling of indianness that pervades desi public, a producer might be able to succeed against competition from hollywood and independent segments, by focussing on the niche market of indian diaspora. However, the movies have to address issues the overseas diaspora is worried about. So, taking movies that become a hit in A,B,C centres in tamilnadu and in Loehmann's cinemas in virginia might become more untenable. Obviously, there will be producers who can bankroll marquee names of bollywood or kodambakkam and produce a movie that addresses both the segments. The probability that it will become a hit will only decrease further as the world 'flattens' more.

An example of such a movie might be Dil Chahta Hai that was one of the very few indian movies that addressed itself to a niche market of youth who are at ease with glossy vacations, working across nations and slightly complicated relationships. The producer could have tried to have it all by having Dimple's character recover from her illness and reunite with Akshay's character, with blessings from elders. Further more, there could have been a 'family' song included in the climax which Aamir's character sings(with a whiskey bottle for additional effect) to get Preity's character to accept him. That would have made it a conventional indian movie that is obsessed with repeating sequences that they perceive movie audiences across india will relate to, niches within that audience be damned. By focussing on the niche market, DCH were able to become a favourite of their target segment and maintain a brand image that very few indian movies have successfully achieved, in recent memory.